Frequently Asked Questions

My Value Prop is a sports betting intelligence newsletter. Our model scans betting lines across 9 major US sportsbooks and looks for situations where a bet is genuinely underpriced — meaning the odds a book is offering are better than they should be given the real probability of that outcome. When we find one, we send it to you.

We do not take bets, operate a sportsbook, or hold your money. We are an information and analytics service — think of us as a data-driven research tool, not a broker.

No. My Value Prop is an informational and entertainment service. Our picks, analysis, and recommendations are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute gambling advice, financial advice, or professional sports betting guidance. We cannot guarantee any pick will win. Sports betting involves substantial risk of financial loss and individual results will vary.

By subscribing, you acknowledge that you are using the Service for informational and entertainment purposes, and that all betting decisions — and their consequences — are entirely your own.

Three things set us apart:

• Every pick is public and auto-graded. Our scoreboard at myvalueprop.com/scoreboard shows every pick we’ve ever recommended, graded against the actual result. We can’t hide losses. Most pick services show you only their winners.
• Our picks are model-driven, not gut feelings. We use a confidence + edge scoring system. A pick only reaches your inbox if the model gives it a confidence score of 65 or higher and a mathematical edge of at least 4% over the implied odds.
• We shop 9 sportsbooks per pick. You always see the best available line across all major books, not just one.

We scan 17+ sports leagues including: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAAB (college basketball), NCAAF (college football), MLS, EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Champions League, ATP/WTA Tennis, PGA Tour Golf, Formula 1, and select additional markets when strong opportunities are identified.

Sports betting laws vary by state. My Value Prop provides an informational and analytics service — we do not facilitate betting and are not a sportsbook. However, we recommend verifying that sports betting is legal in your jurisdiction before using our picks to place wagers.

As of early 2026, sports betting is legal in over 35 U.S. states. For the most current information on your state’s laws, we recommend consulting your state gaming commission’s website or a licensed attorney.

Our system runs twice daily (morning and evening). Here’s what happens:

• We pull live betting lines from 9 US sportsbooks in real time
• For each game, our model figures out what the “true” probability of each outcome actually is — based on the market as a whole, team form, and historical data
• We compare that true probability to what each book is actually offering. If a book’s price is meaningfully more generous than reality, that gap is the edge
• A pick only makes the cut if the edge is at least 4% and our confidence in the signal is 65 or higher (out of 100)
• Picks above that bar are Card picks (primary recommendations). Plays with slightly lower confidence become Leans — still real value, just a smaller suggested bet size

Edge is how much better a bet is than it should be. Think of it like a coupon. If a store’s jacket is worth $100 but it’s marked $85, you have a 15% edge — you’re getting more than fair value. In sports betting, the sportsbook sets the price. Our model figures out the real fair price, and when the book’s price is meaningfully better than that, we flag the gap. Only picks where that gap is at least 4% reach your inbox.

Confidence is how certain the model is about the signal. It’s a score from 0 to 100 based on how clean the data is, how many books agree, and how stable the line has been. A 65+ confidence score means the model sees a clear, consistent signal worth acting on. Lower than that, we don’t send it as a Card pick.

Card picks are the main event — confidence 65+, edge 4%+. These are what’s tracked on the public scoreboard. Leans are plays with slightly lower confidence (50–64) where the edge is still real but the signal is a bit noisier. Smaller suggested bet, available on Premium and Elite.

On slow days, the model may produce fewer than the typical number of qualifying picks. We will never pad the newsletter with low-confidence picks just to fill a quota. If nothing qualifies, we say so.

Our current all-time record on card picks (confidence ≥ 65, edge ≥ 4%) is available in real time at myvalueprop.com/scoreboard. The record is auto-graded against actual results and represents every card pick we have published since launch.

We display W-L-P (Win-Loss-Push) counts, ROI percentage, and a paper bankroll tracker. A push occurs when a game ends exactly on the spread or total — your stake is returned in a real betting scenario. Pushes do not count as wins or losses.

Close, but not exactly. The scoreboard tracks wins and losses based on the pick we sent — straight up, no adjustments. In real life, every sportsbook takes a small cut (built into the odds) on every bet you place. That cut is the same reason a coin flip doesn’t pay even money at a sportsbook. We’re already accounting for this in how we find picks — we only recommend bets where the price is generous enough that the book’s cut doesn’t eat the edge. But your actual results will also vary depending on which book you use and the exact line you get when you place the bet.

Your Teams is a personalized section of your newsletter built around the teams and sports you care about. You tell us your favorites at myvalueprop.com/customize.html and every edition surfaces relevant picks, upcoming game times, and matchup notes for your teams. Your Teams is available on all tiers.

Yes — 100%. Customization doesn’t filter or gate the picks. Every subscriber gets the full Official Card regardless of their preferences. The model surfaces the best opportunities it finds that day, and those land in your inbox no matter what.

What customization adds is an extra layer of personalization on top of the picks — think of it as your personal sports briefing. When you set your favorite teams and sports, your newsletter also includes:

• A dedicated Your Teams section highlighting picks where your teams are playing
• Game start times and matchup context for your teams, even when there’s no pick on them
• A heads-up when your teams have upcoming games worth watching
• Your preferred sportsbook highlighted on every pick, so you always know where to go first

The picks are the main event. Your Teams makes the newsletter feel like it was written for you.

Every subscription tier comes with a 7-day free trial. You will not be charged until the 8th day. If you cancel before the trial ends, you will not be charged at all. After the trial, billing continues on a monthly recurring basis until you cancel.

Each person is eligible for one free trial total. My Value Prop reserves the right to limit trials that appear to be used fraudulently.

You can cancel your subscription at any time through the subscriber portal (link provided in your subscription confirmation email) or by visiting myvalueprop.com/support for instructions. Cancellation takes effect at the end of your current billing period — you retain access through the end of the period you’ve paid for. We do not offer mid-period refunds.

You must be at least 18 years of age to use the Service (21 in jurisdictions where the legal gambling age is 21). By subscribing, you represent that you meet the age requirement in your jurisdiction.

Yes. You can change your subscription tier at any time through the subscriber portal. Upgrades take effect immediately. Downgrades take effect at the start of the next billing cycle. Visit myvalueprop.com/customize.html to manage your plan.

Monthly billing is the only option currently available. Annual pricing is on our roadmap and may be offered in the future. Subscribers will be notified when it becomes available.

My Value Prop does not offer refunds for partial subscription periods. If you cancel, your subscription remains active through the end of the current billing period. Exceptions for documented billing errors may be made at our discretion. The 7-day free trial ensures you can evaluate the Service before your first charge.

Visit myvalueprop.com/customize.html to update your favorite teams, preferred sports, and preferred sportsbooks. Changes take effect on the next newsletter send.

Check your spam/junk folder first — add picks@myvalueprop.com to your contacts to ensure delivery. Newsletters are sent twice daily (Morning Edition ~9 AM ET and Evening Edition ~5 PM ET) for all tiers. If you have just started a trial or subscription, allow up to 24 hours for your first email.

The “Talk to the Real MVP” chat button (the chat bubble in the bottom right corner of every page) lets you ask questions about today’s picks, the scoreboard, how the methodology works, or your subscription. It’s powered by AI with access to real-time pick data — so it knows exactly what’s on the card today. Guests can ask general questions; full pick details are available to paying subscribers only.

Visit myvalueprop.com/support for self-service options including preference management, subscription management, and answers to billing questions. Please do not reply directly to newsletter emails — they are sent from a one-way address and replies are not monitored.